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A record-breaking Halloween?

Autumn Trees

The UK is bathed in an exceptionally mild southerly to south-westerly air-stream for this final day of October meaning that we have a chance of producing a new record for this date! Many places are starting cloudy and misty but away from the far west and north-west where we'll have patchy rain, most places will stay dry and central and eastern parts will have increasing sunny spells. Temperatures in the best of the sunshine could reach 21c (70f) which will be close to a new maximum temperature record for Halloween!

A band of cloud and rain will move into the north and west overnight, then push south and east, fizzling out as it does so on Saturday morning. Sunshine and showers will follow to the north and west through Saturday and temperatures will generally be a few degree's lower than today, perhaps reaching 17c in the south which is still very warm for the start of November.

An area of heavy rain will develop on Saturday night and could linger for much of the day across England and Wales on Sunday. Sunshine and blustery showers to the north and west. Temperatures cooler again on Sunday and this is the trend as we move into next week with temperatures returning to the early November average. It will be an unsettled start to the week before it probably turn's dry and chilly mid-week with a seasonable feeling Bonfire Night in prospect.


Gavin Partridge. 31/10/14. 8:30

To catch up on all this week's video musings please go here
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You can now see the second Winter 2014/15 seasonal model update here

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November Look-Ahead With JMA Friday (31/10/14)


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Gavin's Thoughts (25/10/14)

Latest Flash (29/10/14)

Roger J. Smith Winter 14/15

Terry Scholey's Oct-Nov Forecast

October 2014 is turning into another very mild month from the exceptionally warm year of 2014. The coming week will start off on a very warm note and we could even see a few "date records" being broken across on Monday and Tuesday.

As we go into Tuesday an active cold front will be moving erratically south and east across the country. This will take a band of heavy rain from Scotland and Northern Ireland into Wales, Northern England and the Midlands. Temperatures could hit 20c (68f) in the south...

To read the rest click ***HERE***

So far this autumn the weather has been very mild with an above average incidence of southerly and south-westerly winds. From the weekend however, it seem's the weather will be cooling down and as we move into next week we may get out first little northerly snap of the autumn/winter season.

from 1st November a significant drop in temperature is being forecast to take place and by around 5th November the temperature ensembles are going a little below average. Synoptically we see clear evidence if winds swinging into the north next week...

To read the rest click ***HERE***

So I should begin by saying that winter 2014-15 may not seem entirely different from last winter to many, and there could be rather frequent wind storm events in Britain and Ireland. This set-up should mean that winter 2014-15 will not be generally as mild as last winter in Britain and Ireland.

The colder portions of the winter, from my index value research, would appear to be roughly once every month, but more specifically, mid-November, early December, early part of mid-January and possibly a longer cold spell near end of February into March

To read the rest click ***HERE***

It looks as though much of the remainder of October will also be unsettled especially in the north and west. The south and east will have brief drier, brighter intervals and with winds often in a southerly quarter it will be very mild generally.

The first half of November trend however should be for Atlantic depressions to increasingly 'dive' into central Europe, eventually leading to a much colder 'blocking' type towards mid-November...

To read the rest, click ***HERE***






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