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Very wet in the south-east. Colder.

Autumn leaves after the rain

It's a "Washout Sunday" across south-eastern parts of England. Heavy rain will be on all day here. For the Midlands and central/southern England the rain will clear later, while further north and west it's mostly dry with sunny spells and a few showers. A lot colder with temperatures starting off at 12c in the S/E but dropping. Most places at 6-7c.

Rain clears the south-east tonight and it turns cold with a risk of frost and fog patches. Monday will be mostly dry across the country, though fog patches could linger in places. More dense fog and a widespread frost on Monday night with the fog lingering all day in the north on Tuesday itself. Meanwhile rain arrives in the south.

The weather changes again late in the week with low pressure coming in from the Atlantic Ocean. Western parts turn wet and windy through Thursday and Friday but how much progress eastwards the rain makes remains to be seen. A milder end to the week also. A strong westerly flow could return for the start of December with a risk of gales and mild temperatures.

Gavin Partridge. 23/11/14. 9:35

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Eighth (And Final) Winter Update (23/11/14)




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Gavin's Thoughts (22/11/14)

Latest Flash (20/11/14)

Roger J. Smith Winter 14/15

Terry Scholey's Mid Nov to Mid Dec Forecast

The weather so far this November has been very mild and quite wet. It looks as though the coming week will see something a little more "seasonable". Frost and fog may be quite common during early and mid-week, but later in the week it's back to wet and windy conditions but at least temperatures get a boost once again.

Whilst somewhat colder this week, contrary to recent newspaper reports there's absolutely no sign of any severely cold or wintry weather coming up. Actually it looks as though November 2014 will be another "snow-free" November!

You have to go back to November 2010 to find a November with significantly cold or snowy conditions.The wait continues for another year...

To read the rest click ***HERE***

The GFS model is signalling a pretty significant warming over Siberia next week on Monday 24th November. This in itself is probably not enough to create northern blocking and destroy the polar vortex, but it is enough to start putting the polar vortex under pressure.

To already be getting significant stratospheric warming this early (remember winter hasn't even started yet) could be an indication that by mid-winter (let's say Christmas through January) we could have a good chance of a major mid-winter sudden stratospheric warming...



To read the rest click ***HERE***

So I should begin by saying that winter 2014-15 may not seem entirely different from last winter to many, and there could be rather frequent wind storm events in Britain and Ireland. This set-up should mean that winter 2014-15 will not be generally as mild as last winter in Britain and Ireland.

The colder portions of the winter, from my index value research, would appear to be roughly once every month, but more specifically, mid-November, early December, early part of mid-January and possibly a longer cold spell near end of February into March

To read the rest click ***HERE***

A Russian high may be more stubborn until around the 21st, with the progress of Atlantic systems somewhat delayed as a result. Despite this, much of the remainder of November should be mild but colder where patchy fog is slow to clear. The end of November and the first half of December does have a colder look about it however, with perhaps a blustery interval at he end of the first week of December.

The prime mover of the current meridonial flow I believe is the lower strength of sunspot cycle 24. So a winter of both very mild perhaps exceptionally so at times and I favour probably the third week in January for this and much colder northerlies. These could come at times in December giving brief snowfall before Christmas, with I fancy a drier but colder February...

To read the rest, click ***HERE***






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