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Remains of "Hurricane Gonzalo" on it's way

altostratus

The remains of ex-hurricane Gonzalo will heading in to the British Isle's in the next 24 hours. This will bring a spell of stormy weather for many of us, but Monday itself should be the "calm before the storm".

Western parts will have some showers today, but central and eastern areas should be dry and fine with sunny spells. Later in the day the showers will die away from the north-west as clouds thicken ahead of a deepening area of low pressure in the Atlantic. Temperatures will still be mild, but feeling cooler than recently with a maximum in the south of 16c (61f).

All places will turn wet and windy through tonight and tomorrow morning. Scotland, Northern Ireland and Northern England getting the worst of the stormy conditions with heavy rain and gusts of wind perhaps reaching 50-60mph. Disruptive weather is possible in the north and west on Tuesday morning either from localized flooding or wind damage. Further south conditions shouldn't be as bad tomorrow morning, but all places will have a significant blow.

The persistent rain will clear away through Tuesday morning to leave sunshine and blustery showers. Becoming much cooler in the strong north-westerly wind with gales slowly moderating. Temperatures just 7c in the north to 12c in the south. Warmer air push back in from mid-week but the weather will be staying unsettled with more rain at times.

Gavin Partridge. 20/10/14. 8:10

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Fourth Winter 14/15 Update (19/10/14)


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Gavin's Thoughts (10/10/14)

Latest Flash (11/10/14)

Terry Scholey's Oct-Nov Forecast

It looks as though the weather will be staying unsettled during the coming week with low pressure in control. Temperatures will be recovering however, as winds turn into the south and brings warmer air up from Spain and the central Atlantic.

Heavy rain will spread up from the south across much of England and Wales on Sunday night driven on by a fairly strong easterly wind...

To read the rest click ***HERE***

The OPI is a new methodology/theory that I haven't studied, so I can't offer an opinion on it's value as a forecasting tool at this stage. Essentially when the OPI is negative for October it should feed back to a negative AO (Arctic Oscillation) where-as when the OPI is positive it should feed back to a positive AO.

Negative AO's are of course what we're looking for to get a cold winter as it's when the AO is negative that we have Northern Blocking. So if we get to the end of October 2014 and the OPI is still negative it should feed back to an increased chance of a cold winter...

To read the rest click ***HERE***

It looks as though much of the remainder of October will also be unsettled especially in the north and west. The south and east will have brief drier, brighter intervals and with winds often in a southerly quarter it will be very mild generally.

The first half of November trend however should be for Atlantic depressions to increasingly 'dive' into central Europe, eventually leading to a much colder 'blocking' type towards mid-November...

To read the rest, click ***HERE***






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