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Cooling down slowly after Halloween record-breaker

Autumn tree on a sunny day

A change is currently under-way as the air from the tropical Atlantic Ocean which gave us a new date record maximum temperature for Halloween is being pushed away into the Continent and cooler air begins to replace it from a cooler part of the Atlantic.

The south-east is starting cloudy with showery rain. Sunny spells follow through the day, but further showers will develop in the west and north with showers merging into longer spells of rain across Ireland and the west of the UK. Temperatures will be cooler than recently, but still very mild for the start of November - 17c (63f) in the south-east.

Cloud and rain will spread across the country tonight with the rain lingering in the south-east through much of Sunday morning. Sunny spells and squally showers will follow with the showers banding into longer spells of rain in places. Temperatures will be cooler again, but perhaps still reaching 15c (59f) in the south.

Monday looks a very unsettled with heavy rain across much of the country in the morning, followed by showers. Temperatures will be back to the early November average of 13c (55f) at best. Mid-week should be dry but cool with unsettled conditions returning later - We will have a full detailed look at next week's weather in the week ahead forecast coming up @ GWV later today. The first Christmas forecast updates begin this evening so look out for that.


Gavin Partridge. 1/11/14. 8:45

To catch up on all this week's video musings please go here
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For all 90 day seasonal forecasts please go here
You can now see the second Winter 2014/15 seasonal model update here

Latest weather forecast video here

November Look-Ahead With JMA Friday (31/10/14)


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Gavin's Thoughts (25/10/14)

Latest Flash (29/10/14)

Roger J. Smith Winter 14/15

Terry Scholey's Oct-Nov Forecast

October 2014 is turning into another very mild month from the exceptionally warm year of 2014. The coming week will start off on a very warm note and we could even see a few "date records" being broken across on Monday and Tuesday.

As we go into Tuesday an active cold front will be moving erratically south and east across the country. This will take a band of heavy rain from Scotland and Northern Ireland into Wales, Northern England and the Midlands. Temperatures could hit 20c (68f) in the south...

To read the rest click ***HERE***

So far this autumn the weather has been very mild with an above average incidence of southerly and south-westerly winds. From the weekend however, it seem's the weather will be cooling down and as we move into next week we may get out first little northerly snap of the autumn/winter season.

from 1st November a significant drop in temperature is being forecast to take place and by around 5th November the temperature ensembles are going a little below average. Synoptically we see clear evidence if winds swinging into the north next week...

To read the rest click ***HERE***

So I should begin by saying that winter 2014-15 may not seem entirely different from last winter to many, and there could be rather frequent wind storm events in Britain and Ireland. This set-up should mean that winter 2014-15 will not be generally as mild as last winter in Britain and Ireland.

The colder portions of the winter, from my index value research, would appear to be roughly once every month, but more specifically, mid-November, early December, early part of mid-January and possibly a longer cold spell near end of February into March

To read the rest click ***HERE***

It looks as though much of the remainder of October will also be unsettled especially in the north and west. The south and east will have brief drier, brighter intervals and with winds often in a southerly quarter it will be very mild generally.

The first half of November trend however should be for Atlantic depressions to increasingly 'dive' into central Europe, eventually leading to a much colder 'blocking' type towards mid-November...

To read the rest, click ***HERE***






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