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Mainly fine today. Dense fog tonight

Frosty leaves

Much of the country has started on a chilly note with a widespread ground frost and even an air frost in places. It should stay dry and fine for most of us today with bright or sunny spells. A little cloud and patchy rain for north-west Scotland. Temperatures 9c at best today. It will stay dry tonight with another and dense fog patches will become widespread.

Tuesday will start with a lot of dense fog across the country. Some of these patchy will linger all day in the north, but for England and Wales the fog should lift and cloud and light rain pushes north. A cool day with temperatures of just 3c in fog rising to 8c.

Wednesday and Thursday look cloudy with patchy rain on Wednesday but mainly by for Thursday. Becoming a little milder in the south by the end of the week. There's a lot of changes taking place in the medium range with the computer models at the moment. This morning some models are looking to build high pressure through the country which would give us a colder start to December. More in today's video update.

Gavin Partridge. 24/11/14. 9:35

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Cooler start to December? + More on BCC Update (24/11/14)




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Gavin's Thoughts (22/11/14)

Latest Flash (20/11/14)

Roger J. Smith Winter 14/15

Terry Scholey's Mid Nov to Mid Dec Forecast

The weather so far this November has been very mild and quite wet. It looks as though the coming week will see something a little more "seasonable". Frost and fog may be quite common during early and mid-week, but later in the week it's back to wet and windy conditions but at least temperatures get a boost once again.

Whilst somewhat colder this week, contrary to recent newspaper reports there's absolutely no sign of any severely cold or wintry weather coming up. Actually it looks as though November 2014 will be another "snow-free" November!

You have to go back to November 2010 to find a November with significantly cold or snowy conditions.The wait continues for another year...

To read the rest click ***HERE***

The GFS model is signalling a pretty significant warming over Siberia next week on Monday 24th November. This in itself is probably not enough to create northern blocking and destroy the polar vortex, but it is enough to start putting the polar vortex under pressure.

To already be getting significant stratospheric warming this early (remember winter hasn't even started yet) could be an indication that by mid-winter (let's say Christmas through January) we could have a good chance of a major mid-winter sudden stratospheric warming...



To read the rest click ***HERE***

So I should begin by saying that winter 2014-15 may not seem entirely different from last winter to many, and there could be rather frequent wind storm events in Britain and Ireland. This set-up should mean that winter 2014-15 will not be generally as mild as last winter in Britain and Ireland.

The colder portions of the winter, from my index value research, would appear to be roughly once every month, but more specifically, mid-November, early December, early part of mid-January and possibly a longer cold spell near end of February into March

To read the rest click ***HERE***

A Russian high may be more stubborn until around the 21st, with the progress of Atlantic systems somewhat delayed as a result. Despite this, much of the remainder of November should be mild but colder where patchy fog is slow to clear. The end of November and the first half of December does have a colder look about it however, with perhaps a blustery interval at he end of the first week of December.

The prime mover of the current meridonial flow I believe is the lower strength of sunspot cycle 24. So a winter of both very mild perhaps exceptionally so at times and I favour probably the third week in January for this and much colder northerlies. These could come at times in December giving brief snowfall before Christmas, with I fancy a drier but colder February...

To read the rest, click ***HERE***






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