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Terry Scholey Weather Forecasts
Monthly weather forecasts from weather forecaster Terry Scholey.
New forecasts twice a month on the 1st and 15th. Please do not copy or reproduce forecasts without permission.
TERRY SCHOLEY WEATHER SERVICE
Mid-June to Mid-July 2013
General Comments:
While a few summery intervals are expected, the overall pattern until mid-July is for changeable, sometimes rather cool conditions. It’s not all doom and gloom however as a few finer intervals are also expected, with the period towards the end of June and perhaps briefly in the first week of July offering the best chance for at least a brief taste of summer.
Bouts of winds from a northerly quarter are common during April and May and have been particularly prevalent this year, giving us a cold spring. Around mid-June however, we often see the return of weather from the Atlantic Ocean such as we are witnessing at the moment. These winds tend to have a north westerly bias from the summer solstice and in poorer summers, bringing disappointing often rather cool weather at times with showers through to mid-July. Confidence is medium to high.
Summary:
June 15th to 18th: Drier, brighter intervals but generally unsettled and rather cool. Occasional rain or showers are expected heavy in places, giving local thunder and gusty winds. There could be a longer spell of rain in the South and East for a time. Top temperatures should be between 14 and 20C, with minimum values mostly in the range 8 to 12C.
June 19th to 21st: Could briefly see a drier, finer spell giving sunny spells in lighter breezes, before it probably turns unsettled in the north west and from the south later. It should be a little warmer for a time, although cloud amounts will vary. Top temperatures say 17 to 22C, with minimum values 8 to 13C.
June 22nd to 26th: Unsettled rather cool and perhaps quite windy at times. There will be further rain or showers particularly over Scotland and in the north and north east. The thermometer may struggle to reach 14 to 18C, with minimum temperatures mostly in the range 7 to 11C.
June 27th to 30th: A finer much warmer interval is possible especially in the east and south, while Scotland particularly the north and west may be breezier and more changeable. It could become very warm and a little humid later when showers may break out in the south and east, some heavy with thunder. Top temperatures 16 to 18C in the north and 23 to 26C towards the south east. The nights should be very mild with minimum values in the range say 9 to 14C.
July 1st to 6th: Somewhat cooler and fresher again with variable cloud giving showers, mostly over Scotland and in the north and east. Southern areas should be brighter and see fewer showers, with the weather perhaps turning more generally sunnier and warmer albeit briefly, later in the period. Temperatures should be close to or just below normal at first reaching 16 to 19C, before probably rising later to say between 17 and 23C. Minimum values should be in the range 8 to 14C.
July 7th to 15th: There is some hint of perhaps an improvement towards mid-July, but this should be a mostly cool or rather cool period. Generally large amounts of cloud are expected, although there will be drier, brighter, somewhat warmer intervals these mostly in the south and south west. Showers and some longer spells of rain seem likely probably initially in the north, but perhaps in the east for a time. Some of the rain could be heavy, giving local hail and thunder. Temperatures apart from the odd day could struggle to get much above 15 to 19C, with minimum values between say 7 and 12C.
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June 2013:
General Comments:
There are few changes to the forecast for the first half of June, issued a fortnight ago. A steady rise in pressure over the past few days however, prompts a little delve into some old weather 'lore' regarding this. It says 'long rise long last, quick rise, soon past'. This suggests a fine start to June, but the position of the accompanying anticyclone will be critical.
The current situation over Britain and Ireland continues largely 'blocked' and predicted movements of the 'Jet Stream' over the next month suggest this will continue. Also, of the seven June's in the past that show similar characteristics to the present situation, all seven were cooler than average. For this to satisfy the above, our currently 'building' anticyclone must eventually move to the north or north west, bringing in cooler winds from a north easterly quarter.
During the second half of June, winds between north and west are common, but with the 'Jet Stream' remaining largely 'blocked' some interesting scenarios are suggested. The period just after the summer solstice for example should be very unsettled, this probably followed by finer conditions during the final week of June. Confidence is high for the first half and medium to high for the second,
Summary:
June 1st to 4th: Variable cloud at first, but a mostly fine, dry start to June is likely with sunny days later. This leads to some very warm afternoons, with top temps 15 to 19C rising to 20 to 25C. Although chilly in parts at first, the nights should be fairly mild, with minimum temps 4 to 8C rising to say 8 to 12C.
June 5th to 10th: Still fine and mainly dry especially over Scotland, Ireland and in the West, where further warm afternoons seem likely. Central and eastern areas however although mainly dry at first turn somewhat cooler, as a chilly wind develops. This will also bring more cloud at times, with mostly southern and central areas prone to scattered, locally heavy showers for a while. Top temps 18 to 22C, falling to 14 to 17C in the east, with minimum values mostly in the range 7 to 11C.
June 11th to 15th: A more generally unsettled cloudy, cooler spell seems likely, with the best of any sunny intervals over Ireland and in the West. Showers could be prolonged and heavy, giving local thunder but drier, brighter intervals are also expected. Some eastern areas could be very cool, with top temps only 11 to 15C. Cloud at night however should prevent temps from falling below say 6 to 10C.
June 16th to 21st: Disappointing particularly at first and still rather cool, with generally large amounts of cloud. Further showers are expected particularly in the north and east, where some could be heavy with thunder. Ireland and some others western areas should be drier and brighter, with the weather slowly improving in most areas through the period that should end finer and somewhat warmer with sunny spells. Max temps 14 to 17C rising to 18 to 21C. Some chilly nights could occur for a time even with a risk of grass frost in some vulnerable northern valleys, with min temps mostly between say 5 and 10C.
June 22nd to 26th: Atlantic systems try to move in, although their extent eastwards is a little uncertain at present. Most places should have some rain or showers and it could become quite breezy. Gales are even possible in the north and west, where the bulk of the rain should fall. In the east and south direr, brighter intervals seem more likely, where it could also become rather humid. The cloud should prevent temps from rising much above 16 to 20C, but the nights could be mild with min values say 9 to 14C.
June 27th to 30th: While locally heavy showers may break out at the end of the month, the final week of June should generally be finer and warmer. Pressure should rise bringing increasingly finer conditions, with a very warm spell possible in the east and south at least for a time. Temps should rise steadily to eventually reach say 19 to 25C and the nights remain mostly mild, with min values 9 to 14C.
31st May 2013
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About Terry Scholey:
63 year old interested in the weather since a small boy. Over 55 years of forecasting experience, with a special interest in long range predictions.
While of great assistance say up to 7 days, does not think multi-million pounds worth of computer are the answer to improving extended forecasts. This is simply because the output from a computer is as good as its programme and as we do not entirely understand the complex subject of meteorology, the programme must be flawed. So the longer the period the more inaccurate it becomes (rubbish in/rubbish out) which goes against the principle of long range forecasting.
Better to look at what has happened in the past and/or indentify current weather patterns in advance using a very strong 28 to 30day repeat period based on a knowledge of astronomy and simple astrophysics.
Invented by the writer and called (THE BICYCLE SHED METHOD) this is a very useful 5 to 30 day forecasting tool and particularly useful in 14 days predictions when computer models do not agree in the critical 7 to 14 day period.
The writers 55 years of experience enables him to produce forecasts of the highest quality when the right options are picked as the success of the recent July prediction shows.
The Bicycle Shed Method invented by Terry Scholey and the product of a lifetimes work, will improve 5 to 30 day and particularly 14 day predictions. He feels that now is the time to share his work with others and to demonstrate his methods using his considerable forecasting knowledge.
A presentation probably to a RMS regional meeting is being prepared but will take time to complete. In the meantime happy forecasting.
Terry Scholey 03/08/2012
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