30 Day Weather Forecasts from terry Scholey


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Terry Scholey 30 Day Forecasts

30 Day Weather Forecast posted twice a month on the 1st and 15th.

Please do not copy or reproduce forecasts without permission.


Mid-October to Mid-November 2014

General Comments:

It's certainly been wet and windy recently, although the depression responsible was over South East England rather than across the north and west as first thought. It looks as though much of the remainder of October will also be unsettled especially in the north and west. The south and east in particular though will have brief drier, brighter intervals and with winds often in a southerly quarter it will be very mild generally. There could even be a few warm afternoons, with some unusually high temperatures for late October possible for a while on some days when the sun comes through.

The first half of November is always difficult to predict because it is an important transition period. The trend however should be for Atlantic depressions to increasingly 'dive' into central Europe, eventually leading to a much colder 'blocking' type towards mid-November. Confidence is medium.

Weather breakdowns:

October 15th to around 22nd: Extremely mild air soon spreads to all parts, but it will be unsettled particularly in the north and west where strong winds or gales are likely occasionally. Most places see occasional rain or showers, but the south and east in particular should see skies breaking at times and where the sun comes through it become unusually warm for late October. Temperatures could reach 20C in the warmest spots, with the thermometer expected to reach 13 to 17C more generally on most days. The nights will be mild with frost unlikely, as temperatures fall to mostly between 8 and 14C.

Around October 22nd to 25th: Sometime in this period, a transient ridge of high pressure may briefly settle things down. There could be more in the way of sunny spells particularly in the south, although the north and west may continue to see a few showers, with Ireland perhaps turning more generally wet and increasingly windy later. Although still very mild, it may be somewhat less so, but top temperatures of 10 to 15C will still be above average for late October. Clear spells at night may lead to a touch of ground frost in vulnerable rural areas, but most should avoid this, with minimum temperatures about 3 to 8C.

October 26th to around 30th: Atlantic systems bring more wet and windy weather particularly to the north and west and more generally later. Gales are likely that could be severe for a time in the west and north west, but it will be very mild perhaps exceptionally so once more. Maximum temperatures should be mostly in the range 12 to 16C, with frost unlikely. Minimum values should be between 8 and 12C.

Around 31st October to November 6th: Troughs of low pressure should slowly move away to the east, but may take their time to do so. This could leave the country is a somewhat slacker, rather colder regime, with residual rain clearing to scattered showers in generally lighter breezes. Later in the period it could become mainly dry but despite sunny spells temperatures will probably get no higher than about 8 to 12C. There would also be a greater risk of ground or slight air frost at night particularly in inland rural areas, with minimum temperatures between say -1 and +5C.

November 7th to about 12th: Another more unsettled perhaps windy but milder period for a time, with occasional rain between brief, drier, brighter intervals. As the depressions responsible come further south or 'dive' into central Europe, there could be a tendency for much colder northerly outbreaks later. Beforehand maximum temperatures should be between 9 and 14C. The frost risk should diminish until later, with minimum values mostly in the range 4 to 8C.

Around November 12th to 15th: A few uncertainties at present, but it seems likely that pressure could build either to west or the north. This would introduce colder but eventually mainly dry weather after a few showers in the north and east that could be wintry on northern hills. Top temperatures probably only 7 to 1C. The first widespread slight air frosts of the coming winter are possible, with minimum temperatures mostly in the range –2 to +3C.

15th October 2014

October 2014

General Comments:

There can be little doubt hat changes are afoot with most models currently predicting a wetter, October, but there are reservations. For example, a continental anticyclone could be more influential into the second week of October than models are currently predicting. This would cause 'blocking' perhaps giving a few brighter, warmer days in the east and south despite the generally unsettled conditions.

Towards mid-October it may be wet and windy, with the second half probably remaining changeable. West winds are possible for while, before 'blocking' probably returns by month end.

The mean average temperature should be close to normal but perhaps slightly above in the south and south east, with the north and north west colder. Rainfall totals should be close to normal in the east but amounts will vary, with the west in particular probably turning out to be wetter than average. Confidence is medium to high for the first half and medium for the second.

Weather period breakdowns:

October 1st to 4th: Weak fronts bring showers mostly to the north and west, but a few more warm quite pleasant afternoons are likely particularly in some eastern areas. Here though it will not be entirely settled, with a mixture of grey, misty weather giving a few showers and sunny spells. Top temperatures will be 12 to 19C with the nights generally mild, when the thermometer should not fall below 4 to 13C.

October 5th to 7th: A more active cold front brings more generally unsettled conditions from the west, with blustery weather and outbreaks of rain, followed by showers heaviest and most frequent in the north and west. Some thunder is likely and it turns cooler particularly by day, with top temperatures 10 to 16C. Chillier nights may result in ground frost mostly in the north, with minimum values say 2 to 8C.

October 8th to 11th: Remaining unsettled particularly in the west, with further locally heavy showers. Eastern areas though may see fewer showers later, where more in the way of sunny intervals could give the odd pleasantly warm afternoon again, with maximum temperatures mostly between 11 and 18C. The ground frost risk may also diminish, with minimum temperatures mostly in the range 5 to 12C.

October 12th to 15th: Powerful Atlantic depressions often 'sweep in' about his time, but may be partially 'blocked' for a while by high pressure to the east. It should turn wet and windy particularly in the north and west, where gales could be severe. The east may be less wet even finer for a time and very mild, before all parts probably turn cooler from the west after some rain. Maximum temperatures 13 to 17C falling to 8 to 12C, with minimum values mostly between 6 and 12C.

October 16th to 20th: After some showers, a rise in pressure should give a finer interval with sunny spells. Later Scotland and some other northern areas may turn breezier and unsettled. It could be colder than of late, with temperatures probably struggling to reach 9 to 13C. Colder nights may bring ground frost and a slight air frost mostly to rural areas, with minimum temperatures between say -1 and +6C.

October 21st to 28th: Probably unsettled and at times windy, with brief drier, finer intervals mostly in the south. It may also feel quite cold for a time, before it probably turns much milder later in the period. Occasional rain or showers seem likely that could be heavy, with gales possible mostly in the north. Top temperatures should be 10 to 14C, rising to 12 to 16C later. The risk of overnight ground frost should largely disappear, with minimum temperatures 3 to 8C probably rising to 8 to 12C later.

October 29th to 31st: A 'blocking' pattern could return, with the east and some central areas becoming mainly dry and brighter. In the west and over Ireland, it may remain unsettled and breezier, with further occasional rain or showers. Maximum temperatures 10 to 14C, with minimum values say 6 to 10C.

1st October 2014

Latest autumn and coming winter thoughts

In the past few day's I have been looking at certain theories concerning autumn rainfall, as this September has been very dry. Previous very dry Septembers and Octobers did not produce anything specific as far as the following winter was concerned. November however, did with the enhanced likelihood of a cold winter if the month is very wet.

Computer models have been suggesting for some time that the autumn should be mild generally, with the wettest weather in the north and west. The Chinese model is going for an unsettled winter, with the coldest weather in the north. However because of the distance and the fact we do not understand meteorology fully, I simply do not trust computer models however useful they may be.

The noise's I'm currently getting for the remainder of autumn do indeed suggest a mild one. Indeed October may be very mild, with perhaps some further very warm afternoons over much of England and Wales in the first half of the month. It should also continue to be mainly dry particularly in the east and south, but October may become breezier and more unsettled later.

November should be much wetter with rain and gales for a while. The second half will probably see a trend for more northerly outbreaks with frost and some snow possible in the north and east later.

As far as the coming winter is concerned, there are few signs suggesting that the coming winter will be particularly severe, despite an easterly QBO and a developing El Nino which favours a colder winter. As last winter was so mild however, it may feel colder overall but a long, hard, severe winter seems unlikely.

Cold spells, which could occasionally be snowy seem likely early and later in the winter and to this end there could be quite a sharp cold spell perhaps with snowfall before Christmas. These threats of a cold winter should be false however, with perhaps a milder January followed by colder spells again in February and into the early Spring.

23rd September 2014

PS. I am not one for putting small print at the bottom of my forecasts regarding liability and copyright etc etc, as all my forecasts are a genuine effort based on my vast experience. It had to happen I suppose that it has come to my notice that a few individuals are abusing my goodwill and selling on these forecasts.

I expect fair play from all concerned but anyone caught selling on these forecasts for financial gain will be and without warning severely dealt with, within the law.

I cannot prevent the passing on of these forecasts and have no objection to this, but if you do wish to sell them on from this date. PLEASE ASK MY PERMISSION FIRST.


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E Mail: terry.scholey@ntlworld.com

Terry Scholey FRMets

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About Terry Scholey:

Terry Scholey Picture 63 year old interested in the weather since a small boy. Over 55 years of forecasting experience, with a special interest in long range predictions.

While of great assistance say up to 7 days, does not think multi-million pounds worth of computer are the answer to improving extended forecasts. This is simply because the output from a computer is as good as its programme and as we do not entirely understand the complex subject of meteorology, the programme must be flawed. So the longer the period the more inaccurate it becomes (rubbish in/rubbish out) which goes against the principle of long range forecasting.

Better to look at what has happened in the past and/or indentify current weather patterns in advance using a very strong 28 to 30day repeat period based on a knowledge of astronomy and simple astrophysics.

Invented by the writer and called (THE BICYCLE SHED METHOD) this is a very useful 5 to 30 day forecasting tool and particularly useful in 14 days predictions when computer models do not agree in the critical 7 to 14 day period.

The writers 55 years of experience enables him to produce forecasts of the highest quality when the right options are picked as the success of the recent July prediction shows.

The Bicycle Shed Method invented by Terry Scholey and the product of a lifetimes work, will improve 5 to 30 day and particularly 14 day predictions. He feels that now is the time to share his work with others and to demonstrate his methods using his considerable forecasting knowledge.

A presentation probably to a RMS regional meeting is being prepared but will take time to complete. In the meantime happy forecasting.

Terry Scholey 03/08/2012